How To Connect To Your Server Using SSH

Setup using an SSH tunnel machine

SSH is about as cool as sliced bread, if maybe not a little bit more so. Seriously, it’s a great way to get at your server’s terminal shell, which—as we all know—is the hotbed of power. From there you can change just about any aspect of the server, not to mention seriously screw things up if you don’t know what you’re doing.

Regardless of your skill level or knowledgeability, if you’re going to do any serious web mastering with your server, you’ll need to access the server shell at some point. To do this, you’ll need to tunnel commands server-side via SSH. There are several ways to accomplish this, but each operating system treats the process slightly differently. Lucky for you, we’ve got a common way to get at your server via SSH for all three major operating systems. No need to thank us, though: This is by no means a comprehensive methods list, but rather just a quick guide to dipping your toe in the water. For more complex entry methods, hit up the Big-G and google it.

In the meantime, though, check below for our ways of getting to your server via SSH!

SSH Access For Windows:
Windows is complicated, and because of that, we’ll get it out of the way quick. Windows, unlike Linux or Macintosh (which we’ll look at in just a second) is not based on UNIX, and does not come stock with any kind of SSH client. However, there are plenty of utilities out there that will get the job done. Without sending you to a search engine, though, you can use our favorite in the meantime: PuTTY.

This handy application provides a pleasant enough graphical interface from which to get at your server. Just enter the name of the host, then choose SSH as your connection type. If you’d like, you can save the information for further use. Then enter your username and password, and PuTTY should do the rest.

For Linux:
Linux, by nature of its internal coding, is much less of a pain in the derriere. All you have to do is locate your local terminal application (this varies from distro to distro, so look carefully) and then type the following string:

ssh -l your-username yourserver-or-ip.com

For Macintosh:
For Mac users, enter the same command as above, only use the native Terminal application, which can be found in your Utilities folder. Easy as pie, right?

WebHostingGeeks.comEstablished in 2004, WebHostingGeeks.com is an independent web hosting review site that provides real customer reviews of the most popular web hosting services like HostGator, GoDaddy, WebHostingPad, and many others. If you are looking for reliable hosting company, we will help you find the best web host for your website that suits your needs and budget.

Read More

Comparing Popular Bulletin Board Software Packages

Bulletin board systems these days don’t get as much attentions as other genres of software.  These tend to be more associated with not-for-profit sites of various kinds, and non-business related genres often plays second fiddle.


Regardless, adding a discussion board to your web site is a great way to generate community interest in whatever your site is centred around.  The difference between a good and bad forum site can be like night and day, though.  Here are some of the most popular BBS’s out there, and their perceived advantages and disadvantages.

phpBB

This is one category in which there is a clear leader.  phpBB is far-and-away the most popular BBS.  Even with a few features lacking one web site summarized its review of the latest version, phpBB3, by declaring it “the perfect forum software.”

Is it?  Looking over it we could fill this entire article up with a list of its features.  It comes with support for 42 languages, including both American and British English.  It’s compatible with 7 different PC browsers and six different SmartPhones.  It can run on six different data storage systems.  It has more than 400 available plugins and more than 500 available themes.

Honestly, we have an easier time listing what it can’t do.  About the only features it lacks that you might have serious use for are threaded discussions, a calendar system and the ability to have a paid-customer only section.  It is described as possibly a little tricky to fine tune, but otherwise easy to install and work with.  There were complaints in recent versions about security weakness, but they seem to have been cleared up.

vBulletin

Comparing them side-by-side you may wonder exactly why phpBB is so much more popular than a package like vBulletin.  Their feature lists are close to being carbon copies of one another.

The primary reason is probably the fact that phpBB is free and open source, vBulletin is paid software, and is not cheap.  This appears to be the only reason, though, and we should temper this with one addendum.  The entire Publishing Suite version of the software package includes content management and community blog software designed to work with your forums.  Given the high marks that the forum software receives, this may make it a preferred choice for someone who needs a more professional looking site.

Simple Machines Forum (SMF)

SMF doesn’t seem to have nearly the level of usage on the web as these other two packages.  Like vBulletin, though, it doesn’t seem to be because the software itself is lacking.  In fact, it arguably has the most features of all three, and one site listing its positives and negatives couldn’t even come up with any of the latter.  It is only at version 2.0, but five years worth of development went in between that and version 1.5.

Bulletin board software packages appear to be one of the more complete areas of web development.  If you want to add a discussion board to your site, you have lots of solid packages to choose from.

Read More

Burglars target victims through Facebook, Twitter

A majority of burglars in Britain use social networking websites like Facebook and Twitter to target their victims, a survey has revealed

As many users post updates on social networking sites, thieves not only get information about recent high-value purchases, but also the dates and times when they are out.

Other websites, such as Google Street View, show photographs of individual houses from which the would-be burglars can gauge security and ease of access by looking for alarms and side entrances, the Telegraph reports.

The study was based on the answers of offenders who were convicted of burglary this year.

Four out of five of the criminals said burglars were using social media websites. But they also said that a simple home alarm would have deterred them from targeting the property in the first place.

One of the convicted burglars interviewed said that 'people are now taking advantage of social media to access information about would-be victims.'

"We're living in the age of the digital criminal and people are taking advantage of social media to access information about would-be victims," Taylor said.

"We'll tell them even when we're going away on holidays. We will let them know that we're not in. We're inviting them round to our house," he added.

The survey also revealed that a thief steals an average of 487 pounds from a home on a single visit.

Read More

Lots of hacking attempts on S.Korea military in year

South Korea's military has seen more than 2,700 attempts to hack into its websites over the past year, a lawmaker said Wednesday, amid growing concern over North Korea's cyber warfare capability.

File photo shows South Korean soldiers using computers in Seoul. South Korea's military has seen more than 2,700 attempts to hack into its websites over the past year, a lawmaker said Wednesday, amid growing concern over North Korea's cyber warfare capability.

Kim Ok-Lee of the ruling Grand National Party said the military's websites had seen 2,772 hacking attempts from July 2010 to last month, according to data from the defence ministry.

The monthly average number of attacks has grown from some 170 last year to more than 200 in 2011, the ministry said in a report submitted to Kim.

The origins of the attacks were unknown since hackers could easily disguise Internet Protocol addresses, it added.

"All attempts were blocked and there was no damage...there was no hacking or cyber terror on our defence intranet that is operated separately (from the websites)," the ministry said.

The South's military said in July it would expand its cyber warfare unit, launched in January last year, to better combat growing Internet attacks from the communist North.

North Korea reportedly maintains elite hacker units.

Seoul accused Pyongyang of staging cyber attacks on websites of major South Korean government agencies and financial institutions in March this year and in July 2009.

It also blamed Pyongyang for a cyber attack that paralysed operations at one of its largest banks for more than a week in May.

Pyongyang rejected those allegations, accusing Seoul of inventing the charges to raise tensions.

Read More

Facebook investor Accel shelves larger India fund

Marquee silicon valley venture capitalist Accel Partners, best known for its early investment in Facebook, has scrapped plans to raise $400 million India-focused fund due poor market conditions and increased competition among private equity investors in the country. Accel's proposed fund would have invested larger tranches of growth capital in mature business, unlike early stage venture funding it does in India currently. Accel Partners had roped in prominent fund managers from biggies like DE Shaw, Apax Partners and Goldman Sachs to lead the India growth fund. A senior Accel Partners official confirmed rolling back plans for a larger fund in India. Accel, however, will continue making early stage investments in "category defining" start-up firms in the country. Accel has invested in multiple e-commerce start-ups riding the second wave of India's consumer Internet story. Accel's start-up funding has been in areas of technology, internet, education and biotech. Former India head of Apax Partners Neeraj Bharadwaj, Prateek Dhawan, who spearheaded private equity investments of Goldman Sachs, and Vineet Sachdeva from DE Shaw had boarded Accel Partners for its larger fund operations. Sources said Bharadwaj and Dhawan would continue with Accel for the time being at least. Sequoia Capital, another Valley investor and a peer of Accel, has a bigger play managing $1.4 billion fund in the country. There has been a jostling among private equity firms to invest in one of the few growth economies, which in turn has distorted valuations of emerging businesses in India. This combined with prevailing poor market conditions have prompted may investors into private equity industry turn cautious. Many private equity professionals had quit their jobs to raise a fund of their own adding to a crowded market which has about 400 funds. Some have found the going tough and have withdrawn their fund raising plans. A few Indian corporates like Jubilant Group, which had looked at sponsoring funds, too have shelved their moves. Accel, a pedigree early stage investor, has raised large private equity funds in recent years and operated a joint venture with Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co to acquire middle rung technology and IT services firms. The proposed India fund wanted to strike investment deals of up to $50 million in growth businesses in contrast to venture investing that is usually below $10 million.

Read More

Netflix, Facebook -- Did You Forget About Your Consumer?

Why do tech companies hate their customers all of a sudden? It's a question worth asking after a wild week for two of the most valuable and important internet businesses. Netflix, already in the doghouse after announcing a price hike back in July, only made things worse by announcing its DVD rental business would be severed from its streaming video offering and shoved into a new company with a terrible name, Qwikster. Then Facebook rolled out critical changes to the social network's interface before users had a chance to get used to the last round. Netflix disc At first blush, these moves don't seem to have a lot in common, but look deeper and you'll see that what unites them is a tin ear for what their consumers want. Netflix subscribers don't want higher prices for essentially the same service, and they certainly don't want any complications, real or imagined, from having to deal with a separate company. They also didn't want an apologetic and misguided letter from CEO Reed Hastings that communicated the business strategy behind the move without explaining the consumer benefit. (Possibly because there isn't any.) What Facebook users don't want is constant flux on a platform that's become an important habit for many. What they want, more than anything else, is stasis-an end to or, at least, a slowing of the fast-running stream of tweaks and overhauls that forces them to study up on how their personal information is shared and spend hours tweaking their profiles so they can avoid having their own, private social-media crisis. These are obviously massive generalizations, but it's not hard to miss the annoyance targeted at the companies. As New Yorker writer Susan Orlean tweeted to her 185,000 followers, "I think the people running Facebook and Netflix went to a how-to-irritate-your-customers seminar together." Each company had reasons to know they were courting backlash. Netflix already saw the negative reaction to its announced price hikes, enough of a misstep that a lot of subscribers initially assumed that Mr. Hastings' letter was going to be a rollback of the price increases. Instead it ended up being a tactical misstep that only helped to erode what's left of goodwill for the company. Meanwhile, Facebook itself is an always-on referendum on a lot of things, including Facebook, and there's an intense amount of whinging that comes with each new version. It's easy to dismiss this when your user base and valuation continues to grow no matter what you do, but that continued growth is by no means guaranteed, especially when you introduce changes like this recent one that, on a foundational level, alters what Facebook is. Its new Timeline feature will transform your profile from a momentary snapshot of what you're doing to something more like a digital biography, possibly making old news-photos of your kegstands, ex-girlfriends-new again. The risk to Facebook, as it constantly dances around privacy issues, is that it will cause consumers more problems than it's worth. Why change a good thing? Facebook, we're told, needs to constantly innovate in order to avoid the fates of dead and near-dead social networks like Friendster and MySpace. But that translates it into an if-we-build-it-they-will-come(-or-stay) attitude that often comes off as arrogant. Underlying all this is a disregard for listening to customers that we see all too often from tech companies and, to no small degree, we can blame Apple for it. Steve Jobs, famously distrustful of market research, instilled in his company a product design-led ethos validated by a decade of nothing but hits. Facebook feels a lot like Apple in this regard, led by engineering and a cultural insight that people want to share more and that should be enabled at all cost. They both barrel forth as fast as their innovation cycles will carry them. The difference, of course, is that I can choose not to buy a new Apple product while still remaining a loyal customer and part of their ecosystem. With Facebook, there's more of a feeling that you're all in, whether you want to be or not. Netflix, on the other hand, is rather easy to opt out of altogether. You could simply turn to Amazon or Walmart or Redbox or even Blockbuster, now set to launch its own streaming service. Or you can ask yourself whether you really need a monthly bill for a limited selection of on-demand videos and maybe even save yourself a few bucks. In any event Netflix is sure to feel the pain. Videonuze estimates that about 6.5 million customers will leave Netflix this quarter, a record amount of churn for the company. And while it's a long shot, now that Google+ is on the block, Facebook might find that its own disgruntled users, those who've wailed about leaving the service during previous redesigns, may finally have a place to run to.

Read More

Could Facebook Changes Lead to a Google+ Boom?

Could changes on Facebook become a crucial business opportunity for Google+? The storyline seems familiar: People at first rant about the new changes to the site, but then eventually accept it, thus allowing Facebook to continue its growth. With previous site changes, users did not have as many well-known options to fight the company's decisions. MySpace was dying out, which meant people either accepted the changes or left the social-media scene (more chose the former). But now, Google may have the answer to some people's prayers. On message boards, blogs and even Facebook profiles, those upset with Facebook's new changes have said they are off to Google+. With over 750 million accounts, Facebook has dominated the social media scene for years. Robert Drew, a professor of communication at Saginaw Valley State University, told the Midland Daily News that Facebook's dominance may make it difficult for a company such as Google to compete. Like us on Facebook "It'll be a tough go for Google because Facebook's user group is so large and entrenched by now," Drew said. "It's not like the days of MySpace, or before that, Friendster, when there was a great deal less loyalty and force of habit among consumers." Jason Swackhamer, director of Web communications at the same university, told the paper he doesn't envision a mass exodus away from Facebook given that it has become so ingrained in so many people's lives. However, he notes that Google is trying to capitalize on privacy concerns with Facebook, which could begin to eat away at time spent on the social network. "I think the most frustrating thing for social media users is that there isn't one pre-eminent social media product, therefore they all maintain their place at the table. Each one has unique, appealing features," Swackhamer said. "Facebook must pay attention and respond because the Google Empire has proven to be successful." Google +, launched in the summer, saw quick growth at its start, although its estimated 25 million users is merely a small fraction of Facebook's community. The service was originally by invitation only; however, Google announced last week that it is now open to the Internet public. Furthermore, Google announced features such as its "Hangouts," a video-chat feature to allow mobile use and broadcasting. In the meantime, Facebook has recently received substantial criticism for the new changes it just launched -- which include the Ticker and Timeline applications, along with the apps. The International Business Times reported Saturday that in a survey of over 1,000 people conducted by social-voting-based site Sodahead, about 86 percent of the Facebook audience said they disapproved of the changes of Facebook. That number included 91 percent of teenagers, 89 percent of women and 78 percent of young adults. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, at the recent F8 Developers conference in San Francisco, said he was aware of the dissent and that user opinions were always welcome. However, he told reporters that the site had been tested by those inside and outside of the company and they had no plans at the time to change.

Read More

Yahoo May be for Sale

Our advisers are working with us to develop ideas that we will pursue proactively. At the same time, they are fielding inquiries from multiple parties that have already expressed interest in a number of potential options. We will take the time we need to select and structure the best approach for the company, its shareholders and employees. Translation: for the right price, you're darn right we'll sell this thing — or at least parts of it. The memo also indicates Yahoo is actively looking for a new CEO to replace recently departed Carol Bartz, who left with a bang in a now infamous email sent from her iPad. In a final, touching coda, Yang tells employees that Yahoo can still be a rarity: an internet company that endures. That's a great idea. But Yang and Yahoo's board still should have sold out to Microsoft when Ballmer & Co were courting them like lonely kids the day before the prom. The Yang email was followed later in the day by a missive from interim CEO Tim Morse, who seemed intent on nipping in the bud any sort of lame-duck perception/attitude on the part of employees. "I'm sure by now you've all seen the note from Jerry, David and Roy," says the email, which was published by Kara Swisher at AllThingsD. "I want you to know that while the board works through all of our options, CEO, staff and I have been charged to move the company forward. That means we will not be sitting still over the next few months. We are actively making decisions and taking action." Morse combines a little whip-cracking with an attempt to soften the scuttlebutt about a possible sale:

Read More

Silver Lake is considering a bid for Yahoo! Inc.

Private-equity investor Silver Lake is considering a bid for Yahoo! Inc., the Web company that ousted Chief Executive Officer Carol Bartz, two people involved in the deliberations said.

As part of a deal, Silver Lake would sell off Yahoo’s Asian assets and then attempt to turn around the main operations or find a buyer for that business, said the people, who asked not to be named because the matter is private. Representatives of Silver Lake have approached other companies to gauge interest in purchasing Yahoo’s main business, one person said.

Yahoo Chairman Roy Bostock fired Bartz last week after her efforts to fend off Google Inc. and Facebook Inc. fell short. Asian assets that include a 43 percent stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., combined with a slumping share price, make the company a possible takeover candidate, said analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities and such investors as Di Zhou, an analyst at Thornburg Investment Management.

Kim Rubey, a spokeswoman for Yahoo, and Gordon Goldstein, a spokesman for Silver Lake, didn’t immediately return phone messages seeking comment.

Yahoo’s board met yesterday to hear a presentation from investment bank Allen & Co. on the company’s options and deliberate the search for a successor to Bartz, another person familiar with the matter said earlier this week.

A range of companies have been preparing possible bids for Yahoo and have gotten in touch with the company’s board in recent days, the technology blog AllThingsDigital reported this week. Silver Lake is among potential buyers, it reported.

Alibaba, Softbank

A private-equity company would likely seek a buyer for Yahoo’s stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan Corp. (4689), which according to Gabelli & Co., account for about 80 percent of the company’s market value. Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma tried to repurchase the stake from Bartz and was rebuffed.

Other Yahoo assets include e-mail, instant messaging and news and information portals that generate revenue from advertising and, according to ComScore Inc., were viewed by 674 million people in July. Yahoo also owns the No. 2 U.S. Web- search engine, after Google’s.

Yahoo’s directors are under pressure from investors such as Third Point LLC, which urged the board to resign last week after buying a 5.2 percent stake. The investment firm said directors erred in spurning a takeover bid from Microsoft Corp. in 2008 and hired a CEO who wasn’t up to the job.

The “board of directors has made a number of decisions that have directly harmed the company and resulted in a stock price far below the company’s intrinsic value,” New York-based Third Point said in a filing.

Read More

Microsoft gives Azure cloud toolkit to build Windows 8 apps

Bolstering its plan to bring the Windows operating system and Windows Azure cloud service closer together, Microsoft has released a toolkit that helps developers use Azure to build applications optimized for the forthcoming Windows 8.

The aptly named Windows Azure Toolkit for Windows 8 “is designed to make it easier for developers to create a Windows Metro style application that can harness the power of Windows Azure Compute and Storage,” Windows Azure technical evangelist Nick Harris writes.

Windows 8 for desktops and tablets, now available in a developer preview, brings a markedly different user interface based on the Metro-style tiles also seen in Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 operating system. Microsoft is focusing heavily on integrating Azure, a cloud platform for building and hosting applications, with both Windows desktop and server software. At the BUILD conference this week, Microsoft demonstrated new features that let developers build applications in Windows Server and easily move them to the Azure cloud.

The Azure toolkit for building Windows 8 applications includes a Visual Studio project template that “generates a Windows Azure project, an ASP.NET MVC 3 project, and a Windows Metro style JavaScript application project.” This lets developers rely on Azure to host applications and data, and gives them an easy way to enable Windows 8 features, such as push notifications.

While Windows 8 itself won’t be released until sometime in 2012, Microsoft is giving developers plenty of tools and time to get ready. The Windows Azure Toolkit for Windows 8 can be downloaded on Microsoft’s Codeplex site for hosting open source projects. This isn’t the only Windows Azure Toolkit, by the way. Microsoft also has released such toolkits for Windows Phone, Android and iOS.

Read More

Six Steps to Fix Yahoo - Where Bartz Blew It!

Carol Bartz was fired as CEO by Yahoo‘s Board last week.  Fearing their decision might leak, the Chairman called Ms. Bartz and unceremoniously fired her over the phone.  Expeditious, but not too tactful.  Ms. Bartz subsequently informed company employees of her termination via an email from her smartphone – and the next day called the Board of Directors a bunch of doofusses in a media interview.  Salacious fodder for the news media, but not helpful for Yahoo!

Remarkably, the Yahoo Board seems to have no idea what to do now.  A small executive committee is running the company – which assures no directional change.  And a pair of investment banks have been hired to provide advice – which can only lead to recommendations for selling all, or pieces, of the company.  Most people seem to think Yahoo’s value is higher sold off in chunks than it is as an operating company.

What went so wrong?  Can Yahoo not be “fixed”?

There was a time, a decade or so earlier, when Yahoo was the #1 home page for browsers.  Yahoo! was the #1 internet location for reading news, and for doing internet searches.  Yahoo pioneered the model of selling internet ads to support content aggregation, publishing and internet search.  An early leader, Yahoo was a tremendous success.

Unfortunately, Yahoo kept doing more of the same as its market shifted.  Alta Vista, Microsoft and others made runs at Yahoo’s business, but it was Google primarily that changed the game on Yahoo!  Google invested heavily in technology to create superior searches, offered a superior user experience for visitors, gave unique content (Google Maps as an example) and created a tremendously superior engine for advertisers to place their ads on searches – or web pages.

Google was run by technologists who used technology to dramatically improve what Yahoo started. Their future scenarios were built on an explosion in users, web pages and advertisers.  Yahoo was run by advertising folks, and they didn’t think through where the future market was headed – thus missing the technology upgrades and need for streamlined tools.  Yahoo’s leadership locked-in to what it new (advertising) and their slowness to introduce new solutions and products resulted in the company falling further behind Google every year.

To turn the tide, Google hired what they thought was a technologist in Carol Bartz to run the company.  She previously led AutoCad, which famously ran companies like IBM, Intergraph, DEC (Digital Equipment) and General Electric owned CALMA out of the CAD/CAM (computer aided design and manufacturing) business.  She had been CEO of a big technology winner – so she looked to the Board like Yahoo’s salvation.

But Ms. Bartz really wasn’t familiar with how to turn an ad agency into a tech company – nor was she particularly skilled at technology or new product development.  Her skills were mostly in operations, and developing revisions and next generation software.  AutoCad was one of the first PC-based CAD products, and over 2 decades AutoCad leveraged the increasing power of PCs making its products better, faster and relatively cheaper.  This constant improvement, and close attention to cost control, made it possible for AutoCad on a PC to come closer and closer to doing what the $250,000 workstations had done.  Users switched to AutoCad because it was cheaper – not because it was a game changer.  AutoCad had ridden the PC wave – not its own innovation.

Ms. Bartz was stuck on her “constant improvement and cost control” success formula.  At Yahoo  she didn’t create anything significantly new.  She didn’t pioneer any new platforms (software or hardware) nor any dramatically new advertising or search products.  She tried to do deals, such as with Bing, to somehow partner into better competitiveness versus Google, but each year Yahoo fell further behind the game changer.  In a real way, Ms. Bartz fell victim to Google just as DEC’s leaders had fallen victim to AutoCad.  Trying to defend & extend Yahoo’s early success formula was competitively insufficient.

The Board was right to fire Ms. Bartz. Cost cutting and improvements will not position Yahoo to compete in ad markets now driven by Google (search and adwords) and Facebook (display ads.)  Nor is Yahoo a competitor in the rapidly growing markets – like social media or on-line gaming.

Breaking up Yahoo is the easy answer. If the Board can get enough money for the pieces, it fulfills its fiduciary responsiblity.  The stock has traded near $15/share for 3 years, and the Board can likely obtain the $18B market value for investors.  But “another one bites the dust” as the song lyrics go – and Yahoo will follow DEC, Atari, Cray, Compaq, Silicon Graphics and Sun Microsystems into technology history on Wikipedia.  And most Yahoo employeees will have to find jobs elsewhere (oh yeah, that pesky jobs problem leading to 9%+ U.S. unemployment comes up again.)

A better answer would be to turn around Yahoo! Yahoo isn’t in any worse condition than Apple was when Steve Jobs took over as CEO.  It’s in no worse condition than IBM was when Louis Gerstner took over as its CEO.  It can be done.  As those examples have shown the return for shareholders of a turnaround would likely be far higher than breaking Yahoo apart.

Read More

Windows 8 Makes Microsoft A Tablet Contender Against Android, Apple

Microsoft  showcased its Windows 8 on tablets at the BUILD conference this week. We wrote previously  about how Windows 8 will be the single most important factor to the company’s revenues next year.

Microsoft confirmed these thoughts as it has ambitiously redesigned much of Windows 8 functionality and made it more flexible in order to work on tablets and traditional desktop computers as well as sync easily with Windows Phone 7.

Given the developments so far and adoption by large tablet manufacturers such as Samsung, we believe that Windows 8 could eclipse the 450 million licenses sold by Windows 7 and could prove to be a challenger to iPad’s iOS in a couple of years.

The Windows division is one of the main revenue generators for Microsoft and accounts for about 25% of its Trefis price estimate. We currently have a $28 Trefis price estimate for Microsoft, which implies a near 10% upside to the current market price.

Windows 8 Could Gain Significant Market Share in Tablets

In 2010 Apple launched the iPad which was a runaway hit and created a whole new market for tablets. While Microsoft and others had tried tablets before and failed, the market has matured and Microsoft has learned from its past attempts and competitors successes. Gartner predicts that more than 300 million tablets will be sold by 2015 presenting a nice growth opportunity for the largest OS in the world.

Apple has more than 80% of the tablet market share currently with Google’s Android coming second. HP recently discontinued its Touchpad tablets and RIM’s Blackberry Playbook has seen dismal sales. Android hasn’t seen as much success with tablets as it has with smartphones and so this leaves a window of opportunity for Microsoft to gain traction in the tablet market.

If Microsoft moves quickly, it could potentially capture a meaningful portion of the tablet market in the next couple of years. Manufacturers are looking for alternatives to Android, which could help them beat the iPad. Windows 8 will be launched for tablets as well as computers and will support both the X86 and ARM architectures.

Special Offer: Jim Stack had his subscribers in cash and hedged investments before the market crashed in 2008 and he got aggressive again just as the market bottomed. Click here for currently recommended “safety-first” investments in InvesTech Research.

Windows 8 will also offer better integration with Windows Phone 7, and together, they will offer a complete ecosystem just like Apple’s Mac OS X and iOS, which should make it the platform of choice for hardware manufacturers looking for a non-Apple unified solution.

With the growth in the personal computing space slowing down, tablets are the new market that offer tremendous growth potential. With Windows 8, Microsoft has a chance to capture significant market share if it can move quickly. However as analysts expect Microsoft to launch the new version in mid-2012, this gives Apple another year to make further inroads.

No, Windows 8 WILL MAKE Microsoft WinARM (and perhaps Wintel) tablet contenders a year from now, when Windows 8 actually becomes available. This combination of updated operating system and hardware products does not yet exist in the present. For now, it’s just hype and vaporware, and not yet a competitor. And even if and when when Windows 8 does finally ship, Redmond’s take on their copy of Steve Jobs’ portable touch screen concepts still will be five years behind Apple’s product development.
         
Not one Windows 8 tablet has been sold and probably won’t be until the end of next year and yet the prognosticators are already yelling “iPad challenger”. These are the same knuckleheads that yelled “iPad fail” when Apple first released the iPad into consumers’ hands. They said that Apple wouldn’t sell a million tablets in a year and three million tablets would never be sold since there weren’t that many iSheep in the world.

There is not one reason in the world to think that consumers will take to the Windows 8 tablet any more than they’ll take to the Windows Phone 7 smartphone. These prognosticators really understand nothing about what consumers are looking for. Microsoft shows some potentially powerful Windows 8 OS and the tech-heads go nuts about how consumers will jump all over this without ever so much as holding a Windows 8 tablet in their hands or how a production version will be. It’s amazing how tech pundits yell “Success” and “Fail” without really knowing anything except a handful of specs. In another year, Apple will have totally dominated the tablet market and I doubt if consumers will be in all that much of a hurry to switch to Windows 8. I’m sure the tech-heads will jump because they’re always looking for more power. I know they can’t wait to run Microsoft Office and Photoshop on their tablets, as if any consumer in their right mind would ever think of doing such a stupid thing.



VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
   1. Microsoft Office constitutes 29% of the Trefis price estimate for Microsoft's stock.
   2. Windows Operating System constitutes 25% of the Trefis price estimate for Microsoft's stock.
   3. Windows Server & SQL Server constitutes 13% of the Trefis price estimate for Microsoft's stock.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Microsoft's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Microsoft:
Windows Operating System

    * Microsoft's Market Share of PCs:  We currently forecast Microsoft's market share of PCs to increase slightly from about 75% in 2010 to 76% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. We believe that success of Windows 7 and improved anti-piracy efforts could benefit its market share. However, the benefits of anti-piracy could be more gradual as Microsoft expands its product offerings to emerging markets, where piracy is more prevalent. There could be a downside of more than 5% to the Trefis price estimate if its anti-piracy efforts does not materialize as it expands its offerings, and its market share decline to 60% by the end of Trefis forecast period.

    * Global Notebook & Netbook market: We conservatively forecast global notebook and netbook market to increase from 203 million in 2010 to 264 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period, an average growth rate of around 4%. This growth is much less than the average growth of 24% achieved in the past few years. We believe the primary reason for this slow growth will be the advent of tablets, which could cannibalize low cost notebooks and netbooks sales. However, there could be an upside of more than 10% to the Trefis price estimate if the notebooks & netbooks market grows at an average growth rate of 12% annualy.

    * Widows OS Operating Margin: We currently forecast Windows OS operating margin to decline from about 66% in 2010 to nearly 59% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. Although the growth of netbooks has benefited Microsoft by selling more Windows licenses, however, netbooks OS license pricing is typically lower than a notebook or desktop. This has caused margin declines in the past. However, the rapid rise of tablets could cannibalize netbooks growth in the future. This will mean than although Microsoft will lose volume business, it could benefit by boosting its margins. There could be an upside of 3% to Trefis price estimate if it is able to maintain its margins at around 66% in future.

Windows Operating System

    * Microsoft Share of Productivity Software market:  We currently forecast Microsoft's market share of Productivity software to decline from about 95% in 2010 to 88% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. We believe that increasing competition from cloud computing players like Google could cause market share declines. However, Microsoft has released ‘Office Web Apps’, a free web-based version of its Office productivity software to better compete with Google. There could be an upside of more than 1% to the Trefis price estimate if Microsoft is able to maintain its market share throughout. However, if Google is able to capture large market share at the expense of Microsoft, there could be a downside of 5% to the Trefis price if Microsoft's market share declines to 60% by the end of Trefis forecast period.

    * Microsoft Office Operating Margin: We currently forecast Windows OS operating margin to decline from about 61% in 2010 to nearly 54% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The margins declined at a faster rate in 2010 due to the introduction of lower priced office web apps. Microsoft is forced to offer lower cost products due to increased competition from Google Apps. There could be a downside of 7% to the Trefis price estimate if its margins declines to around 40% by the end of Trefis forecast period.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Microsoft makes money primarily through the sale of business productivity software and the sale of operating system software. Microsoft's business productivity software suite, known as MS Office, is used for word processing, spreadsheet preparation, presentations and email. MS Office is sold primarily to businesses worldwide.  Microsoft's operating system software, known as Windows, is sold primarily to PC manufacturers (such as Dell, HP, Acer), which sell Windows-based PCs to consumers and businesses.

In May 2011,Microsoft agreed to acquire Skype Global for $8.5 billion in cash. This acquisition is the largest ever done by Microsoft. Skype is an internet phone company that enables phone calls to be made through internet for free or for a nominal charge. It has about 663 million registered users. We believe Microsoft can use Skype to strengthen its enterprise, search and mobile businesses.

Microsoft could make use of Skype by integrating its voice, video and sharing capabilities with Microsoft Office, as a way for businesses to collaborate better. Microsoft could leverage such large user base to promote its search advertising business through Bing. Finally, Microsoft could integrate the Skype calling service into its own operating system Windows Phone 7 to enhance its features.

Microsoft Company Overview

SOURCES OF VALUE

We believe Microsoft Office and Windows Operating System are the most valuable segments of Microsoft for the following reasons:
High MS Office License Volume

We believe that Microsoft will sell close to 800 million licenses of its productivity software globally in 2011. Of the 800 million licenses, we estimate that around 40-50% of these licenses will be sold to businesses
Windows OS Market Share and Piracy

Microsoft's Windows is the predominant operating system with ~90% market share within the global installed base of PCs. Despite it's high installed base market share, Microsoft does not make money off of all copies of Windows that are installed. Due to piracy of Microsoft software, we estimate that only 75% of PCs sold have Microsoft operating systems that are paid for.
High Profits for Windows OS

We believe that Microsoft's operating profits will be around 65% in 2011.

KEY TRENDS
Microsoft' declining operating margins

Microsoft Office operating margins have declined from around 67% in 2007 to around 61% in 2010. Microsoft released Office web apps, a cloud-based software, to compete with Google Apps. Under the cloud-computing model, Microsoft would store Office programs on its own servers and deliver them to customers online. Although this is more cost effective for its customers, cloud-based Office software will cost Microsoft more when compared to supplying software that is installed on the computers and servers of customers. If Microsoft willingly ends up cannibalizing some of its own business productivity products, it could be due to fears that competition and mobile apps are a serious threat to its business long-term and would pressure margins anyway.

Microsoft faces headwinds in tablet market

Microsoft is reportedly working on development of Windows 8, which will be better suited for touch screen tablet devices. However, Windows 8 is expected to be released by 2011-end, by which time the tablet market will be more competitive.

Nokia partnership could benefit Microsoft

Microsoft recently announced a strategic partnership in which Nokia will adopt Windows Phone 7 as the main operating system for its smartphones.

Nokia still leads the global mobile phone market, but its market share has been declining in recent years. Microsoft has also seen struggles in the smartphone market, with its smartphone operating system market share dropping from around 9% in 2009 to 4% in 2010.

According to the deal, Microsoft’s Bing search will power Nokia’s smartphones and Nokia’s app store will be integrated with Microsoft marketplace. Nokia has a large presence in emerging markets, which is also attractive to Microsoft.

Through the Nokia partnership, Microsoft not only stands to gain licensing revenues for its operating system, but also search advertising market share.

Windows Pricing / Market Share Threat from Emergence of Netbooks

Netbooks took shape as a phenomenon in 2008 and are expected to be more than 10% of the PC market in 2011. Netbooks are targeted towards price-conscious consumers and are used to primarily run web-centric applications like email and the Internet, where the OS requirements are light. This has lead PC OEMs to be more willing to look at lower- priced, reasonably capable alternatives to Windows, such as Linux. If netbooks continue to be a bigger part of the PC mix, that trend will dilute either Microsoft's market share or it's pricing and margins
Piracy of Windows Remains an Issue

Piracy is an important issue for Microsoft regarding Windows. Software piracy in emerging markets is particularly problematic.

Growing Threat from Google Apps

We expect that Microsoft's Office suite will continue to experience challenges from hosted solutions like Google Apps, as well as open source alternatives, such as Star Office.
Increased Marketing of Microsoft's New Bing Search Engine

In June 2009, Microsoft unveiled its newly-positioned search engine called Bing. Microsoft is believed to have spent an estimated $80-100 million on marketing and promoting Bing-- and through channels as varied as the nytimes.com, wsj.com and even Google's own Adsense.

SOURCES

Information sources include annual reports, quarterly filings, and quarterly earnings transcripts. Company filings are available from the SEC.

Read More

Yahoo, AOL and Microsoft to challenge Google for ads display

Three tech giants have approached media buyers about plan to target rival's $2.5bn share of US market, say reports

Yahoo, AOL and Microsoft are joining forces to try and loosen Google's grip on internet advertising, according to reports.

Executives from the three companies have privately told media buyers about the plan in the US, where Google has now outstripped Yahoo in display as well as search advertising.

Citing unnamed sources, tech blog AllThingsD said the trio are planning to sell each other's "class 2 display" advertising inventory – advertising space they have not managed to sell themselves and would normally hand over to media agencies to fill.

The potential tie-up comes days after reports that AOL and Yahoo, fallen giants of the first age of the internet, were discussing a merger in the wake of the firing of Yahoo's chief executive, Carol Bartz.

AOL's chief executive, Tim Armstrong, has approached Yahoo's advisers to gauge its interest in combining the companies, Bloomberg reported.

The advertising hook-up, in the meantime, could help slow the fast growth of Google and Facebook in the lucrative online display advertising market.

Google has long dominated search advertising – or online classified advertising – but overtook Yahoo in display advertising in May this year in the US, according to research firm IDC.

The search giant's first quarter revenues of $396m – 13.3% of the market – compared with Yahoo's $330m. Facebook had 8.8% of the market.

Google got into the display end of the market in 2009 after acquiring DoubleClick. Since then the business has grown rapidly and is now estimated to be worth $2.5bn a year.

Yahoo said it has "longstanding relationships" with AOL and Microsoft and will continue to work and compete with them in years to come.

AOL said it is fortunate to have longstanding relationships with a large number of premium publishers, including Yahoo and Microsoft.

"We're excited to continue to explore opportunities to expand our relationships," said AOL spokeswoman Caroline Campbell in a statement, adding that the company will share more information "when it's available".

Read More

Windows 8’s Metro Browser Will Be Plug-in Free Which Means No Flash

Windows 8 is bringing a very tablet-y Metro interface to machines next fall, and it looks like they're following in the footsteps of other tablet manufacturers in excluding Flash from their browser.

Microsoft says that "to get the most out of touch-first browsing, the Metro style browser in Windows 8 is as HTML5-only as possible, and plug-in free". That means that if you launch the browser from the Metro start screen, you won't be able to use Flash or other plug-ins on any of your sites. However, if you launch it from the traditional desktop, you'll still have your Flash. You can read more about Microsoft's decision at their blog, linked below.

What do you guys think? Do you think this is a good compromise, since you have a battery-friendly, plugin-free version of IE available and have the desktop to fall back on? Or do you think this is just going to become one of your bigger Windows 8 annoyances? Let us know in the comments.

Read More

Linux, Open Source & Ubuntu: Linux Turns 20: Open-Source OS Changes Course of IT History

on 25th of August 1991, Linux Torvalds announced a new project on the comp.os.minix newsgroup. He described a “free operating system” that resembled Minix, an operating system based on Unix, and asked for feedback on what people thought worked and didn’t work. Torvalds was not aiming high with this project, noting that his new project would be “just a hobby” and not “be big and professional like gnu.” Now 20 years later, the OS has exceeded its creator’s expectations as it is now available for practically every processor architecture and can power mobile devices, computers, mainframes and supercomputers. the free operating system that Torvalds just gave away to anyone may never supplant Windows or Mac OS X on the desktop, but it is appearing in practically every other computing device, including set-top boxes, cloud servers, social networks, tablets and mobile phones. A vast majority of users may never download the operating system, but the odds are likely they are using a product based on it. Now eWEEK takes a look at some of the biggest achievements of the little operating system over the past 20 years.

Read More

Is Linux Overtaking Windows Web Hosting?

Linux vs Windows

Last Wednesday we brought you news of a lawsuit that accused Microsoft of directly infringing on the privacy of users of its Windows Phone 7 line of mobile phones. Today, Microsoft responded, saying that the suit is incorrect in its portrayal of the company’s actions.

The issue stems from an alleged issue with the camera button present on all WP7 handsets. According to the suit, Microsoft tracks users’ locations when they push the camera button, often against their express will, which is a sweeping charge. In effect, if true, Microsoft would have been directly abrogating its public statements to Congress, and its promises to its users.

Microsoft, not surprisingly, is taking the issue seriously:

    “Because we do not store unique identifiers with any data transmitted to our location service database by the Windows Phone camera or any other application, the data captured and stored on our location database cannot be correlated to a specific device or user. Any transmission of location data by the Windows Phone camera would not enable Microsoft to identify an individual or ‘track’ his or her movements.”

The company is also testing the claims itself, to ensure that it fully understands the complaint:

    “Microsoft is investigating the claims raised in the complaint. We take consumer privacy issues very seriously. Our objective was — and remains — to provide consumers with control over whether and how data used to determine the location of their devices are used, and we designed the Windows Phone operating system with this in mind.”

Earlier this year there was a public flap how smartphones handled user privacy, something that Microsoft was partially tied up in. The issue had, until now, faded from note. That it took Microsoft so long to release the above statements could mean anything. The fact that it is a holiday weekend here in the United States can’t have helped, but you have wonder why it took so many days to put together a rebuttal.

Read More

Microsoft denies gathering data from Windows Phone cameras

Bill Gate with windows mobile

Last Wednesday we brought you news of a lawsuit that accused Microsoft of directly infringing on the privacy of users of its Windows Phone 7 line of mobile phones. Today, Microsoft responded, saying that the suit is incorrect in its portrayal of the company’s actions.

The issue stems from an alleged issue with the camera button present on all WP7 handsets. According to the suit, Microsoft tracks users’ locations when they push the camera button, often against their express will, which is a sweeping charge. In effect, if true, Microsoft would have been directly abrogating its public statements to Congress, and its promises to its users.

Microsoft, not surprisingly, is taking the issue seriously:

    “Because we do not store unique identifiers with any data transmitted to our location service database by the Windows Phone camera or any other application, the data captured and stored on our location database cannot be correlated to a specific device or user. Any transmission of location data by the Windows Phone camera would not enable Microsoft to identify an individual or ‘track’ his or her movements.”

The company is also testing the claims itself, to ensure that it fully understands the complaint:

    “Microsoft is investigating the claims raised in the complaint. We take consumer privacy issues very seriously. Our objective was — and remains — to provide consumers with control over whether and how data used to determine the location of their devices are used, and we designed the Windows Phone operating system with this in mind.”

Earlier this year there was a public flap how smartphones handled user privacy, something that Microsoft was partially tied up in. The issue had, until now, faded from note. That it took Microsoft so long to release the above statements could mean anything. The fact that it is a holiday weekend here in the United States can’t have helped, but you have wonder why it took so many days to put together a rebuttal.

Read More